Pundits and commentators have rushed to the conclusion that John McCain's nomination is a foregone conclusion now that Mitt Romney's campaign has been "suspended." Not so fast. "It's not over, till it's over."
First, John McCain would be a catastrophic for the Republican Party. His platform might best be described as " No Jobs. Endless Wars." He would lose all the independents on the Endless War theme, and would lose the Blue Collar workers on his promise of No Jobs.
Going to Detroit and telling the workers that their jobs were gone forever was a death knell in the industrial states of Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Of course, neither he nor Romney wanted to state the obvious, Kill Free Trade, bring back the jobs.
Second, immigration will get have half the Republican voters stay home, not pull the lever for President, or pull the lever for the Green Party. Nothing he can say or do will ever mend the wounds of the McCain-Kennedy Amnesty. Believe McCain, I don't think so. These are voters that are not going to vote for anyone that Pat Buchanan says is twice as bad as George Bush.
McCain may walk into the convention with every delegate committed to him, but if he walks out of the convention with the nomination, the Republican Party is going to walk the plank into a 50 state defeat.
Here is Ann Coulter:
http://www.anncoulter.com/
If Hillary is elected president, we'll have a four-year disaster, with Republicans ferociously opposing her, followed by Republicans zooming back into power, as we did in 1980 and 1994, and 2000. (I also predict more Oval Office incidents with female interns.)
If McCain is elected president, we'll have a four-year disaster, with the Republicans in Congress co-opted by "our" president, followed by 30 years of Democratic rule.
Running John McCain is blowing up the Republican Party. Just what McCain would love. He would use every moment of his four years to pass every undisgestible piece of legislation he could and probably invade the Bahamas.
What's the answer.
1. Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate. This has a certain appeal. It is a way for disaffected voters to not vote for McCain. But it is not a winning strategy. While Republicans may support Ron Paul's positions, as a messenger Ron Paul is hardly a charismatic candidate. He would be a third party candidate with enough votes to sink McCain, but not enough votes to win.
2. Dump McCain at the Convention. By the time the convention rolls around, the idea may sink-in to the party regulars, that hey, McCain is not exactly a popular guy. And they are going to walk the plank in November with him.
When the voter pulls the lever or fills in the spot on the ballot for the President, the tendency is to just go down the line voting. Other senators and representatives will be washed out in the tsunami. They are party loyalists and will call for Party Unity, up until the time that they realize that there is going to be no party unity and that their jobs are at stake.
Then, they may dump McCain because they realize they will be benched. Dumping McCain at the convention is the first order of business for the Republicans.
3. Nominate Another Candidate. Ok, Huckabee is unacceptable to the same conservatives that are going to dump McCain. A born-again, on the road to Des Moines, immigration candidate is not going to fool anybody. Huckabee is going nowhere. (But I underestimated him before, and I am not going to do it again.)
Nominating Procedures
The first question is the nominating and voting procedures at the Republican Primary. How many people does it take to nominate someone? In CT, at the State Convention, one person can nominate someone, (the floor is open for nominations) and one person then seconds that person. That's it.
At a big national convention, maybe there need to be ten delegates. Can the super delegates nominating someone? Does anyone know.
Further, how committed are the delegates from the States? In the electoral college voting, electors have been known not to vote for their state's winning candidate. And what happens to Romney delegates?
Given McCain's nature it is not likely that he is going to back down. Unless he is thrown out, he is staying to crash the party with him.
Other Candidates
What happens if someone puts in an agreeable candidate, that did not run for the nomination?
So let's look around the Republican stable, and who do we have? Pat Buchanan? Nope, too strident. A feisty warrior on the right side of the right issues, but not going to win. Too much ancient baggage and a voice from the past.
Ann Coulter. A very exciting candidate. Great political opinions. But lacks relevant government experience. Ditto Glen Beck. Michelle Malkin, etc.
So, as we said a few months ago, Lou Dobbs.
Here would be a candidate that is well known to the American public. He has several advantages over Hillary or Obama. 1.) He knows the issues. 2) He is committed to the middle-class; 3) He understands the negatives of free trade and immigration; 4) He has wide recognition and popularity; 4) He could raise money from the moneyed class; 5) He would win.
I sent a check to Lou Dobbs in September. It was to Lou Dobbs for President. I have not received it back as of today. Maybe there is hope.
As these emails have stressed, the primary process is not a process of picking winners, it is a process of elimination. The last person standing wins. What about a Dobbs-Paul ticket?
If we have learned anything from 2008, it is that this is a highly unpredictable year. Nothing has happned as it was laid out. Guiliani has disappeared, Obama has come out of nowhere, and McNasty has come back from the grave.
It's not over till it's over.